Logo

American Heart Association

  24
  0


Final ID: Mo2045

Time-Sensitive Cardiovascular Risk After COVID-19: A Population-Based Study Across Variant Eras

Abstract Body (Do not enter title and authors here): Introduction
Cardiovascular risks following SARS-CoV-2 infection are incompletely defined. We evaluated evolving cardiovascular outcomes across COVID-19 variant eras using a large community-based cohort to inform risk stratification and clinical care.

Methods
We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 162,471 adults with COVID-19 between March 2020 and December 2023 using the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Patients were stratified by variant era (Pre-Delta, Delta, and Omicron). Cardiovascular outcomes included major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: myocardial infarction, stroke, death), ischemic and inflammatory heart disease, thrombotic events, and dysrhythmias. Diagnoses were identified using ICD-10 codes and validated in a subset. Cumulative incidence was estimated using Kaplan-Meier and competing risk models. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess differences by era and age.

Results
MACE occurred in 4,922 patients, primarily in those ≥80 (2-year incidence: 17%). Event rates peaked within 30 days post-infection, with marked variation by variant. In patients ≥80, 30-day MACE risk was highest in the Pre-Delta (HR 3.85; 95% CI, 3.14–4.71) and Delta (HR 2.72; 95% CI, 2.13–3.47) eras versus Omicron. After 30 days, event rates fell and era differences narrowed. Thrombotic events (n=2,090; 1.4%) decreased across eras. Ischemic and inflammatory heart disease rates were stable. Myocarditis/pericarditis were rare (0.1%) without age trends.

Dysrhythmias affected 6,765 patients (2-year incidence: 4.9%) and rose with age (2.0% in <40 vs. 19.9% in ≥80). Within 30 days, risk was higher in the Pre-Delta and Delta eras for age ≥40, especially ≥80 (Delta HR 3.08; 95% CI, 2.08–4.56) and 60–79 (HR 2.23; 95% CI, 1.75–2.85). Among those 40–59, Delta posed the highest risk (HR 2.74; 95% CI, 1.94–3.86 vs. Pre-Delta HR 1.77; 95% CI, 1.26–2.49). No differences were observed in <40. Beyond 30 days, risk converged across variants.

Conclusion
Cardiovascular risk after SARS-CoV-2 infection was concentrated in the first 30 days, with attenuation thereafter. While MACE and thrombotic event rates declined over time, early dysrhythmia risk varied by variant and age, especially in older adults. These findings define a time-sensitive, variant-specific risk window and support short-term, risk-stratified post-COVID monitoring. This work informs targeted follow-up protocols by infection era and age, with implications for quality improvement, resource use, and equitable care.
  • Howick, James  ( Mayo Clinic , Jacksonville , Florida , United States )
  • Raphael, Claire  ( MAYO CLINIC , Rochester , Minnesota , United States )
  • Kiernan, Jack  ( MAYO CLINIC , Jacksonville , Florida , United States )
  • Kafil, Tahir  ( MAYO CLINIC , Rochester , Minnesota , United States )
  • Cooper, Leslie  ( MAYO CLINIC , Jacksonville , Florida , United States )
  • Bois, John  ( MAYO CLINIC , Rochester , Minnesota , United States )
  • Gersh, Bernard  ( MAYO CLINIC , Rochester , Minnesota , United States )
  • Scott, Christopher  ( Mayo clinic , Rochester , Minnesota , United States )
  • Chamberlain, Alanna  ( MAYO CLINIC , Rochester , Minnesota , United States )
  • Shapiro, Brian  ( MAYO CLINIC , Jacksonville , Florida , United States )
  • Mcleod, Christopher  ( MAYO CLINIC FLORIDA , Jacksonville , Florida , United States )
  • Van Niekerk, Christoffel  ( MAYO CLINIC , Jacksonville , Florida , United States )
  • Taylor, Bryan  ( MAYO CLINIC FLORIDA , Jacksonville , Florida , United States )
  • Fairweather, Delisa  ( Mayo Clinic , Jacksonville , Florida , United States )
  • Author Disclosures:
    James Howick: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Claire Raphael: No Answer | Jack Kiernan: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Tahir Kafil: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Leslie Cooper: DO have relevant financial relationships ; Consultant:Cardiol Therapeutics:Active (exists now) ; Ownership Interest:Stromal therapeutics:Active (exists now) ; Consultant:Moderna:Active (exists now) ; Consultant:BMS:Past (completed) | John Bois: No Answer | Bernard Gersh: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Christopher Scott: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Alanna Chamberlain: DO have relevant financial relationships ; Research Funding (PI or named investigator):Exact Sciences :Past (completed) | Brian Shapiro: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Christopher McLeod: No Answer Bryan Taylor: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | DeLisa Fairweather: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
Meeting Info:

Scientific Sessions 2025

2025

New Orleans, Louisiana

Session Info:

From Screens to Seasons: Digital Innovations and Emerging Risks in Cardiovascular Health

Monday, 11/10/2025 , 10:30AM - 11:30AM

Abstract Poster Board Session

More abstracts on this topic:
Cardiovascular Diseases Risk Assessment in the Adult Population: the Italian Health Examination Survey 2023-2024 - CUORE Project

Donfrancesco Chiara, Palmieri Luigi, Lo Noce Cinzia, Di Lonardo Anna, Marcozzi Benedetta, Vannucchi Serena, Morello Maria, Bernardini Sergio, Galeone Daniela, Bellisario Paolo

Association of Blood Pressure Time in Target Range with Outcomes Among NIH "All of Us” Cohort

Agarwal Neel, St John Julie, Xlaffinx Xlukex

More abstracts from these authors:
Agreement of Doppler Flow Velocity Reserve With PET Flow Reserve in Angina Without Obstructive Coronaries

Ismayl Mahmoud, Raphael Claire, Prasad Abhiram, Chareonthaitawee Panithaya, Bois John

Successful Intracardiac Radiofrequency Ablation of Recurrent Subaortic Membrane Causing LVOT Obstruction

Franczak Stephanie, Howick James, Yoo Jeanwoo, Pasupula Deepak, Van Niekerk Christoffel, Mcleod Christopher

You have to be authorized to contact abstract author. Please, Login
Not Available