Long-Term Risks of Cardiovascular Disease in the U.S. Population Based on the American Heart Association PREVENT Equations
Abstract Body (Do not enter title and authors here): Background: The American Heart Association Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events (PREVENT) equations were recently developed to estimate risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Long-term risks of cardiovascular disease based on the PREVENT equations in the U.S. population are unknown.
Methods: Using data on adults aged 30-79 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2011 and 2020, we determined long-term risks of total CVD (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease or heart failure) based on the PREVENT equations. Age-standardized and survey-weighted risk prevalence was determined with further stratification by age group, sex, race and ethnicity.
Results: The study population included 14,256 participants representing 160.6 million U.S. adults (mean [SD] age 51.9 [11.2] years, 49.2% women, 66.4% non-Hispanic white, 9.8% non-Hispanic black, 5.7% non-Hispanic Asian and 14.8% Hispanic). Among adults aged 30-79 years, 9.6% had existing CVD and 20.2% were CVD-free but had intermediate or high (≥7.5%) 10-year risk of CVD. The prevalence of CVD-free US adults with low or borderline (<7.5%), intermediate (7.5-19.9%) and high (≥20%) estimated 10-year CVD risk was 65.6%, 18.8%, and 4.3% for men and 74.7%, 14.3% and 2.8% for women, respectively. Among adults 45 years and older, men and Black or Hispanic adults were more likely to be at intermediate or high 10-year CVD risk (Table). Among adults 65-79 years, 28.9% had existing CVD and 64.3% were CVD-free but had intermediate or high 10-year risk. Among CVD-free adults 30-59 years, the median 30-year risk of CVD was 17.8% for men and 12.6% for women, respectively. Among all U.S. adults 30-59 years of age, 65.4% were CVD-free with an intermediate or high 30-year risk of CVD and 6.1% had existing CVD.
Conclusions: Three in ten U.S. adults aged 30-79 years has an intermediate or high 10-year risk of CVD events, including more than 90% of adults over age 65. Nearly three in four middle-aged adults have an intermediate or high 30-year risk. Men, Black and Hispanic adults were generally higher risk. These findings emphasize the need for more intensive public health efforts to prevent cardiovascular disease in the U.S.
Faridi, Kamil
( Yale School of Medicine
, New Haven
, Connecticut
, United States
)
Malik, Devesh
( Yale School of Medicine
, New Haven
, Connecticut
, United States
)
Essa, Mohammed
( New England Heart and Vascular Institute
, Manchester
, New Hampshire
, United States
)
Yang, Huanhuan
( Yale University
, New Heaven
, Connecticut
, United States
)
Spatz, Erica
( YALE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL MEDICINE
, New Haven
, Connecticut
, United States
)
Krumholz, Harlan
( Yale School of Medicine
, New Haven
, Connecticut
, United States
)
Lu, Yuan
( Yale School of Medicine
, New Haven
, Connecticut
, United States
)
Author Disclosures:
Kamil Faridi:DO have relevant financial relationships
;
Researcher:NIH/NHLBI:Active (exists now)
| Devesh Malik:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Mohammed Essa:No Answer
| Huanhuan Yang:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Erica Spatz:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Harlan Krumholz:DO have relevant financial relationships
;
Individual Stocks/Stock Options:Element Science:Active (exists now)
; Research Funding (PI or named investigator):Pfizer:Active (exists now)
; Research Funding (PI or named investigator):Kenvue:Active (exists now)
; Research Funding (PI or named investigator):Janssen:Active (exists now)
; Ownership Interest:Ensight-AI:Active (exists now)
; Ownership Interest:Refactor Health:Active (exists now)
; Ownership Interest:Hugo Health:Active (exists now)
; Advisor:F-Prime:Active (exists now)
; Individual Stocks/Stock Options:Identifeye:Active (exists now)
| Yuan Lu:No Answer
