Abstract Body: Migraine with aura(MwA) is associated with an increased risk of stroke and adverse vascular outcomes compared to those with migraine without aura (MwoA). AI-ECG prediction models developed at our institution can evaluate the probability of atrial fibrillation (AF) and estimate a patient’s age based on a normal sinus rhythm (NSR) ECG. Delta age, AI-ECG estimated age minus chronological age, indicates endothelial dysfunction and is associated with cardiovascular mortality. We aim to assess how AI-ECG prediction model outputs, specifically the AF probability and delta age, are associated with adverse vascular outcomes in patients with migraine.
Adult patients diagnosed with MwA and MwoA from 2000-2020 with at least one digital, standard 12-lead ECG were identified. The first ECG that showed NSR is used as the index ECG. Patients with any adverse vascular outcomes before the index ECG were excluded. Adverse vascular outcomes used as endpoints include acute ischemic stroke, acute myocardial infarction, deep vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolism, AF, and carotid artery dissection.
A total of 31301 patients (13783 MwA, 17518 MwoA) were included in our analysis. The mean age at the time of the index ECG was 44.3 (14.5), and the average follow-up time was 71.6 (69.8) months. Based on the index ECG, the mean AF probability was significantly higher in MwA compared to MwoA (2.39 vs 2.06, p< 0.001), while the delta age was lower in MwA compared to MwoA (3.7 vs 4.2, p <.001). The prevalences of all vascular outcomes are summarized in Table 1. Multivariate Cox regression models showed that a higher AF prediction model output (every 10% increase), as well as a higher delta age (every 10-year increase), are associated with an increased risk of composite vascular outcomes (HR1.20, 95%CI 1.17-1.23, p<.001, and HR1.19, 95%CI 1.14-1.23, p < .001) [Table 2]. The Kaplan-Meier curve of adverse vascular outcome-free survival by AF prediction model output, using 1% as the cutoff (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.41, 1.57, p<.001), and by delta age, using 2-year as the cutoff (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.08, 1.21, p <. 001) are presented in Figure 1. Having aura, older age, male, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes, hypertension, and tobacco use were also associated with a higher risk of adverse vascular outcomes.
Our results demonstrated the potential of using AI-ECG AF prediction model output and delta age to identify migraine patients at risk for adverse vascular outcomes.