Abstract Body (Do not enter title and authors here): Introduction
Complex congenital heart disease (CHD) patients with atrial arrhythmias have higher rates of morbidity and mortality compared to less complex CHD patients. This study aims to identify echocardiographic predictors of thromboembolism (TE) and major bleeding in patients with Tetralogy of Fallot (ToF) or Pulmonary Atresia with Intact Ventricular Septum (PA-IVS) and atrial fibrillation or flutter (AF).
Methods
This cohort study included patients with ToF or PA-IVS who had a diagnosis of AF who underwent a TTE across three sites. Outcomes were incidence rate of major bleeding or TE, calculated using univariable and multivariable cox regression with interaction for anticoagulant choice and fractional area change (FAC). The HAS-BLED score was augmented with major predictors of bleeding, and receiver operator curves compared.
Results
We included 300 patients (287 ToF [95.7%], 13 PA-IVS [4.3%]), mean age 45.6 years. Most received warfarin (227 [79.4%]), 40 (13%) used DOACs, and 5 (1.6%) used enoxaparin. TTE predictors of TE included large LVOT diameter ≥3cm (HR 8.92, p=0.002), small LVOT VTI (p=0.014), FAC <30% (HR 7.08, p=0.026) and moderate RV dysfunction (HR 10.75, p=0.026). Predictors of major bleeding included moderate tricuspid regurgitation (HR 2.40, p=0.022), right atrial pressure (1.12, p<0.001), severe RA enlargement (HR 2.30, p=0.048), RV mid diameter (HR 1.06, p=0.005), RV end diastolic area (HR 1.04, p=0.021), RV end systolic area (HR 1.05, p=0.016) elevated RVSP and FAC ≤45% (HR 0.37, p=0.016).
Among warfarin users, impaired RV function (FAC ≤45%) was linked to reduced major bleeding events (HR 0.27, p=0.025). There was a nonsignificant trend towards higher bleeding in DOAC users with FAC >45% (HR 3.87, p=0.284), but significantly higher bleeding in DOAC users with FAC ≤45% (HR 12.41, p=0.008) vs. warfarin users with normal RV function (table 1).
We developed an augmented HAS-BLED score: the standard score plus one point for moderate-to-severe pulmonic or tricuspid regurgitation and one for FAC ≤45%. This outperformed the standard HAS-BLED in predicting major bleeding (AUC 0.67 augmented vs. 0.57 un-augmented, p=0.008) (figure 1).
Conclusion
Echocardiographic evidence of right heart disease is a strong predictor of major bleeding in patients with ToF or PA-IVS. FAC is a useful tool to determine excess major bleeding risk, particularly in DOAC users. Augmenting HAS-BLED with right heart parameters improves diagnostic accuracy.