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American Heart Association

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Final ID: MDP1466

Calibration and Discrimination of Cardiovascular Risk Scores in Women with Breast Cancer in the Women’s Health Initiative

Abstract Body (Do not enter title and authors here): Introduction: Women with breast cancer (BC) are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Currently, there is no standardized approach to assess CVD risk in women with BC, despite recommendations for risk assessment. We estimated and compared the performance of established ASCVD risk scores (Framingham Risk Score [FRS], Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease [ASCVD] Risk Estimator, and Life’s Essential 8 [LE8]) in a cohort of postmenopausal women with BC. Methods: Women who were diagnosed with BC (stage I-III) and free of CVD from the Women‘s Health Initiative were included in this study. The primary outcome was 10-year risk of ASCVD, defined as a composite of adjudicated coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, or stroke. For each risk score, we examined calibration and discrimination. Calibration was assessed by calculating bias, slope, standard error of the estimate (SEE), and root mean square deviation (RMSD). Discordance was defined as the percent difference between expected and observed events. Discrimination was evaluated using the c-statistic. We reassessed calibration and discrimination after recalibrating the FRS and ASCVD scores. Results: In 6,946 participants (mean age BC diagnosis: 70 years; 89.7% White), the 10-year incidence of ASCVD was 8.6%. FRS underestimated ASCVD risk by 31.1%, whereas ASCVD and LE8 scores overestimated the risk by 53.7% and 9.3%, respectively (Hosmer-Lemeshow P<0.001 for all scores) (Figure). Discordance was consistent throughout the risk continuum for FRS and ASCVD. However, for LE8, discordance was minimal for those at moderate- to high- risk and overestimated in those at low-risk. The ASCVD risk score had the highest c-statistic of 0.76, compared to 0.62 and 0.71 for the FRS and LE8, respectively (Figure). After recalibration, the discordance for FRS and ASCVD was reduced where the FRS overestimated the risk by 3.7% and the ASCVD overestimated the risk by 37.3%. There were no changes in c-statistics. Conclusions: In this analysis, LE8 had the best calibration, whereas ASCVD had the best discrimination. The ASCVD risk score had a c-statistic of 0.76, suggesting it may be a practical tool to aid in 10-year CVD risk stratification in women with BC.
  • Wadden, Elena  ( University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , United States )
  • Barac, Ana  ( Inova Heart and Vascular Institute , Fairfax , Virginia , United States )
  • Simon, Michael  ( Karmanos Cancer Institute , Detroit , Michigan , United States )
  • Vasbinder, Alexi  ( University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , United States )
  • Cheng, Richard  ( University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , United States )
  • Larson, Joseph  ( Fred Hutch , Seattle , Washington , United States )
  • Jung, Su Yon  ( UCLA , Los Angeles , California , United States )
  • Nudy, Matthew  ( Penn State Health , Hummelstown , Pennsylvania , United States )
  • Sun, Yangbo  ( UTHSC , Memphis , Tennessee , United States )
  • Manson, Joann  ( Brigham and Women's Hospital , Boston , Massachusetts , United States )
  • Levy, Wayne  ( University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , United States )
  • Stefanick, Marcia  ( STANFORD UNIVERSITY , Palo Alto , California , United States )
  • Reding, Kerryn  ( University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , United States )
  • Author Disclosures:
    Elena Wadden: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Ana Barac: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Michael Simon: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Alexi Vasbinder: DO have relevant financial relationships ; Employee:University of Washington:Active (exists now) | Richard Cheng: No Answer | Joseph Larson: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Su Yon Jung: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Matthew Nudy: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Yangbo Sun: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | JoAnn Manson: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Wayne Levy: DO have relevant financial relationships ; Consultant:Medtronic:Active (exists now) ; Other (please indicate in the box next to the company name):Baim Institute - CEC:Active (exists now) ; Other (please indicate in the box next to the company name):Respircardia - Steering Committee:Active (exists now) ; Consultant:Kestra:Past (completed) ; Other (please indicate in the box next to the company name):Bristol Meyers Squibb-Jansssen - CEC:Active (exists now) ; Other (please indicate in the box next to the company name):Orchestra Biomed - CEC:Active (exists now) ; Other (please indicate in the box next to the company name):LivaNova - CEC:Past (completed) ; Other (please indicate in the box next to the company name):Abbott - CEC:Past (completed) ; Other (please indicate in the box next to the company name):EBR Systems - CEC:Active (exists now) ; Research Funding (PI or named investigator):Medtronic:Past (completed) ; Consultant:Impulse Dynamics:Active (exists now) | Marcia Stefanick: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Kerryn Reding: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
Meeting Info:

Scientific Sessions 2024

2024

Chicago, Illinois

Session Info:

Risky Business: What We Know and Don't Know about Cardiovascular Health in Cancer Survivors

Monday, 11/18/2024 , 11:10AM - 12:35PM

Moderated Digital Poster Session

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