Abstract Body (Do not enter title and authors here): Introduction
In 2021, the American Society of Nephrology Task Force recommended using the new CKD-EPI 2021 formula to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and to classify CKD. Evidence to compare the efficacy of this new formula with the current utilized formula, including MDRD and CKD-EPI 2009, in predicting the short-term outcomes of Asian patients with acute heart failure (AHF) is lacking.
Hypothesis
The eGFR calculated by the CKD-EPI 2021 formula predicts short-term outcomes of patients with AHF more accurately than those calculated by the MDRD and CKD-EPI 2009 formulas.
Methods
We conducted a pilot retrospective cohort study from January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2023, at Can Tho Central General Hospital in Can Tho, Vietnam. Our study included patients aged ≥18 who were admitted with AHF, NT-pro BNP levels exceeding 300 pg/mL, and creatinine result within 24 hours of admission. eGFR was calculated using 3 different formulas such as CKD-EPI 2021, CKD-EPI 2009, and MDRD. The short-term outcome was determined by 3-months post-discharge all causes mortality.
Results
The final cohort comprised 146 patients, with a mean age of 65.6 ± 14.2 years and male proportion of 46%. Significant correlations were observed among the three formulas, with the strongest correlation observed between the CKD-EPI 2021 and 2009 formulas. In predicting short-term outcomes, the CKD-EPI 2021 and CKD-EPI 2009 formulas demonstrated superior performance compared to the MDRD formula, with respective area under the curve values of 0.634, 0.635, and 0.607. After multivariable analysis, from 90mL/min/1.73m², every 10 ml/min/1.73 m² decrease in eGFR calculated by CKD-EPI 2021, CKD-EPI 2009, and MDRD was associated with a 32% (95% CI: 9-49), 26% (95% CI: 4-47), and 30% (95% CI: 8-47) increase in the odds of all-cause mortality among patients with AHF. Only CKD-EPI 2021 formula showed significant predictive prognostic value (log-rank test, p=0.049) (Figure).
Conclusion
The CKD-EPI 2021 formula showed superior prognostic efficacy for short-term outcomes in Asian patients with acute heart failure (AHF) compared to current formulas. Further research involving larger patient cohorts and longer-term outcomes is warranted.