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American Heart Association

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Final ID: MDP1700

Machine Learning for Prediction of All-Cause Mortality in Acute Coronary Syndrome

Abstract Body (Do not enter title and authors here): Background
Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains one of the leading causes of death globally. Accurate and reliable mortality risk prediction of ACS patients is essential for developing targeted treatment strategies. Existing traditional models offer moderate discriminative value, and do not incorporate contemporary predictors of ACS prognosis. Machine learning (ML) models have emerged as an alternate method that may offer improved risk assessment. This study aims to compare machine learning models with traditional risk scores for predicting all-cause mortality in patients with ACS.

Methods
PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane databases were searched until 1st November 2023 for studies comparing ML models with traditional statistical methods for event prediction of ACS patients. The primary outcome was comparative discrimination measured by C-statistics with 95% confidence intervals between ML models and traditional methods in estimating the risk of all-cause mortality.

Results
Ten studies were included (239627 patients). The summary C-statistic of all ML models across all endpoints was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.86-0.92), compared to traditional methods 0.82 (95% CI, 0.79-0.85). The difference in C-statistic between all ML models and traditional methods was 0.07 (p<0.05). Three models undertook external validation, and calibration was inconsistently reported.

Conclusion
ML models demonstrated superior discrimination of all-cause mortality for ACS patients compared to traditional risk scores. Despite outperforming well-established prognostic tools such as the GRACE and TIMI scores, current clinical applications of ML approaches remain uncertain, particularly in view of the methodological limitations of existing studies and the need for greater model validation.
  • Gupta, Aashray  ( Royal North Shore Hospital , Sydney , New South Wales , Australia )
  • Chan, Justin  ( New York University , New York , New York , United States )
  • Gould, Paul  ( Princess Alexandra Hospital , Brisbane , Queensland , Australia )
  • Sivagangabalan, Gopal  ( WESTMEAD HOSPITAL , Westmead , New South Wales , Australia )
  • Zaman, Sarah  ( WESTMEAD HOSPITAL , Westmead , New South Wales , Australia )
  • Thiagalingam, Aravinda  ( WESTMEAD HOSPITAL , Westmead , New South Wales , Australia )
  • Chow, Clara  ( UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY , Westmead, Sydney , New South Wales , Australia )
  • Kovoor, Pramesh  ( WESTMEAD HOSPITAL , Westmead , New South Wales , Australia )
  • Bacchi, Stephen  ( University of Adelaide , Adelaide , South Australia , Australia )
  • Bennetts, Jayme  ( Victorian Heart Hospital , Melbourne , Victoria , Australia )
  • Maddern, Guy  ( University of Adelaide , Adelaide , South Australia , Australia )
  • Zaka, Ammar  ( Gold Coast University Hospital , Southport , Queensland , Australia )
  • Mustafiz, Cecil  ( Griffith University , Southport , Queensland , Australia )
  • Mutahar, Daud  ( Bond University , Varsity Lakes , Queensland , Australia )
  • Parvez, Razeen  ( Bond University , Varsity Lakes , Queensland , Australia )
  • Stretton, Brandon  ( University of Adelaide , Adelaide , South Australia , Australia )
  • Kovoor, Joshua  ( University of Adelaide , Adelaide , South Australia , Australia )
  • Mridha, Naim  ( The Prince Charles Hospital , Brisbane , Queensland , Australia )
  • Ramponi, Fabio  ( Yale University , New Haven , Connecticut , United States )
  • Author Disclosures:
    Aashray Gupta: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Justin Chan: No Answer | Paul Gould: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Gopal Sivagangabalan: No Answer | Sarah Zaman: No Answer | Aravinda Thiagalingam: No Answer | Clara Chow: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Pramesh Kovoor: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Stephen Bacchi: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Jayme Bennetts: No Answer | Guy Maddern: No Answer | Ammar Zaka: No Answer | Cecil Mustafiz: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Daud Mutahar: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Razeen Parvez: No Answer | Brandon Stretton: No Answer | Joshua Kovoor: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships | Naim Mridha: No Answer | Fabio Ramponi: DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
Meeting Info:

Scientific Sessions 2024

2024

Chicago, Illinois

Session Info:

AI in ACS

Monday, 11/18/2024 , 11:10AM - 12:35PM

Moderated Digital Poster Session

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