Abstract Body (Do not enter title and authors here): Background: We previously found the STRIDE-HF emergency department (ED) risk tool accurately predicted risk of a 30-day serious adverse event (SAE), including 30-day mortality, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, intra-aortic balloon pump insertion, intubation, new dialysis, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization.
Research question: We sought to prospectively validate STRIDE-HF and describe safety of the deployed model in a clinical pilot. We hypothesized that performance would decrease slightly with prospective evaluation and that real-time risk display would contribute to safe disposition decisions.
Goals: 1) To prospectively validate KPCARES-HF across 21 community EDs among ED patients with acute heart failure (AHF) from January 1, 2023 – December 31^st, 2023; and 2) to describe outcomes among patients predicted to be very low risk and discharged home in the clinical pilot.
Methods: For prospective validation, we report 30-day mortality rates by risk strata. We assess model performance using area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) and sensitivity at a key clinical threshold. We describe rates of 30-day SAE among patients predicted to be very low risk and discharged after ED or observation unit care in the clinical pilot.
Results: There were 13,274 ED patients in the prospective validation; median age was 76, 50.8% were female, and 44.5% were non-White. We found 11.4%, 24.8%, 31.9%, and 31.9% of patients were very low, low, moderate, and high risk, respectively, while 21.6%, 15.2% and 63.0% were discharged, observed, and admitted, respectively.
Among discharged patients, 29.2% and 13.3% were moderate or high risk, respectively, and 30-day mortality rates among these patients were 2.2% and 8.4%, respectively. Among 8,363 admitted patients, 27.7% were very low or low risk.
Conclusions: STRIDE-HF maintained high predictive accuracy with prospective validation in this diverse, multi-center cohort. Our findings suggest that use of STRIDE-HF might help better align risk with admission decision and can be safely used to assist providers in identifying patients who may be stable for outpatient care.