Abstract Body (Do not enter title and authors here):
Background The relationship between high-normal blood pressure (BP) and mortality lacks high-quality evidence based on large population cohort. The aim of this study was to comprehensively investigate the association of high-normal BP and its trajectory with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.
Methods In a community-based population cohort from the China Health Evaluation And risk Reduction through nationwide Teamwork (ChinaHEART) project, 3,598,940 participants aged 35-75 years with baseline BP were included. High-normal BP was defined as a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 130-139 mmHg and/or a diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of 85-89 mmHg at baseline. Four trajectories of BP change were identified in 105,894 participants included in the study, who had more than 2 follow-up BP measurements, using latent mixture modeling. Among them, high-normal-increasing was defined as an increase in SBP from 130-139 at baseline to over 140 at the last follow-up.
Findings Compared with the optimal BP group (SBP < 120 mmHg and DBP < 80 mmHg, [18.1%]), participants with high-normal BP (18.7%) had a 4% increase in all-cause mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.07) and a 28% increase in CVD mortality risk (HR 1.28, 95% CI: 1.21-1.34), with the greatest increase in mortality risk observed from hemorrhagic stroke (HR 1.75, 95% CI: 1.55-1.98). Among BP trajectories, compared with participants with optimal-stable BP (25.3%), those with high-normal-increasing BP (3.5%) had a 25% increase in all-cause mortality risk (HR 1.25, 95% CI: 1.00-1.54) and a 67% increase in CVD mortality risk (HR 1.66, 95% CI: 1.21-2.30), with the greatest increase in mortality risk also observed from hemorrhagic stroke (HR 3.15, 95% CI: 1.38-7.20). In our study cohort, approximately 0.7% and 1.3% of all-cause mortality was attributable to the high-normal BP at baseline and high-normal-increasing BP trajectory, respectively.
Interpretation Individuals presenting high-normal BP at baseline or high-normal-increasing BP trajectory afterward exhibited a significantly elevated mortality risk, which is most pronounced for hemorrhagic stroke. Early management of BP in patients with high-normal BP is crucial for the prevention and treatment of hypertension.