Comparative Performance of PCE, PREVENT, and CAC for MACE Prediction in Asymptomatic Patients
Abstract Body (Do not enter title and authors here): Introduction/Background Current prediction models including the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and the novel PREVENT score are used for assessing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring can further refine risk stratification, but its integration with PREVENT remains unknown.
Research Questions/Hypothesis How does the performance of PCE, PREVENT, and CAC—individually and combined— compare for predicting Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) in asymptomatic adults?
Methods/Approach Among 14,570 asymptomatic patients from the Emory CAC Registry (2010–2023), PCE and PREVENT 10-year risk scores were calculated, and CAC was quantified via Agatston scoring using a validated AI method. MACE (myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization>90 days) was ascertained via ICD/CPT codes. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazard ratios were used to evaluate MACE across stratified risk groups. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell’s C-statistic across PCE risk strata (0–2.5%, 2.5-5%, 5-7.5%, 7.5-10%, 10-20% and >20%).
Results/Data The mean age was 56.5 years, 42% were women, 78% were white. Median CACS was 1.3 (IQR 0,49) (44% had CAC = 0). Mean PCE was 7% and mean ASCVD PREVENT was 4%. PREVENT alone outperformed PCE alone (C-statistic 0.64 vs. 0.59, p<0.01), with higher hazard ratios for increasing risk groups (5-7.5% risk: PCE HR 1.7 vs PREVENT HR 2.1 and 10-20% risk: PCE HR 2.8 vs PREVENT HR 4 (vs 0-2.5% risk group)). CAC showed a graded association with MACE (CAC >300: HR=3.8, p<0.001 vs CAC=0). Across all risk strata groups, adding CAC to PCE and PREVENT improved discrimination, with the most substantial improvement in PCE risk groups 2.5-5% and 10-20% (Δ C-statistic =+0.1 for both). Sex-based differences in model performance existed (C-statistics of 0.57-0.74 in men versus 0.57-0.59 in women).
Conclusion(s) CAC further enhances MACE risk discrimination with PCE and PREVENT, particularly in intermediate-risk groups and in males. Integrating CAC with PREVENT may assist in optimizing primary prevention strategies.
Gershon, Gabrielle
( Emory University
, Atlanta
, Georgia
, United States
)
Blumenthal, Roger
( Roger Blumenthal
, Baltimore
, Maryland
, United States
)
Sperling, Laurence
( EMORY UNIV
, Atlanta
, Georgia
, United States
)
De Cecco, Carlo
( Emory University
, Atlanta
, Georgia
, United States
)
Van Assen, Marly
( Emory University
, Atlanta
, Georgia
, United States
)
Barr, Jaret
( Emory University
, Atlanta
, Georgia
)
Halicek, Martin
( Emory University
, Atlanta
, Georgia
, United States
)
Yang, Yan
( Emory University
, Atlanta
, Georgia
, United States
)
Momin, Eshan
( Emory University
, Atlanta
, Georgia
, United States
)
Razavi, Alexander
( Emory University
, Atlanta
, Georgia
, United States
)
Dzaye, Omar
( JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
, Baltimore
, Maryland
, United States
)
Whelton, Seamus
( Johns Hopkins School of Medicine
, Baltimore
, Maryland
, United States
)
Blaha, Michael
( JOHNS HOPKINS HOSPITAL
, Baltimore
, Maryland
, United States
)
Author Disclosures:
Gabrielle Gershon:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Roger Blumenthal:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Laurence Sperling:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Carlo De Cecco:DO have relevant financial relationships
;
Research Funding (PI or named investigator):Siemens:Active (exists now)
; Research Funding (PI or named investigator):Cleerly:Active (exists now)
| Marly van Assen:DO have relevant financial relationships
;
Research Funding (PI or named investigator):Siemens:Active (exists now)
; Research Funding (PI or named investigator):Cleerly Inc:Active (exists now)
| Jaret Barr:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Martin Halicek:No Answer
| Yan Yang:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Eshan Momin:No Answer
| Alexander Razavi:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Omar Dzaye:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Seamus Whelton:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Michael Blaha:DO have relevant financial relationships
;
Research Funding (PI or named investigator):Novo Nordisk:Active (exists now)
; Consultant:Eli Lilly:Past (completed)
; Consultant:Boehringer Ingelheim:Past (completed)
; Consultant:Astra Zeneca:Past (completed)
; Consultant:New Amsterdam:Active (exists now)
; Consultant:Agepha:Active (exists now)
; Consultant:Merck:Active (exists now)
; Consultant:Idorsia:Past (completed)
; Consultant:Genentech:Past (completed)
; Consultant:Bayer:Active (exists now)
; Consultant:Novo Nordisk:Active (exists now)
; Research Funding (PI or named investigator):Bayer:Active (exists now)