Heatwave-Associated Cardiovascular Mortality in the United States: A Nationwide Analysis (1999–2020)
Abstract Body (Do not enter title and authors here):
Introduction: Extreme heat events pose increasing risks for cardiovascular mortality. This study examined trends in cardiovascular deaths associated with heat-related illness in the United States from 1999 to 2020. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that cardiovascular mortality associated with heat-related illness increased from 1999 to 2020, with significant disparities across age, sex, race, region, and urbanization, reflecting disproportionate climate vulnerability among at-risk populations. Methods: Mortality data from CDC WONDER (1999–2020) were analyzed. Death listings for both cardiovascular disease (I00–I99) and heat-related illness (T67, R53, R55) were included. We used the 2000 U.S. standard population to generate age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000. Joinpoint regression calculated the annual and average annual percentage change (APC and AAPC). Stratified analyses were conducted by race/ethnicity, age, sex, region, and urban/rural status. A significance level of p < 0.05 was used. Results: From 1999–2020, 121,600 heatwave-related cardiovascular deaths occurred. AAMR rose from 1.76 to 2.27. In 1999, the South had the highest AAMR (2.02), Northeast the lowest (1.29); in 2020, the Midwest was highest (2.59), Northeast remained lowest (1.45). Black individuals had the highest AAMR in both 1999 (2.50) and 2020 (2.43), Asians the lowest (1.05; 1.43). Rural mortality exceeded urban in both years (2.00 vs 1.71 in 1999; 2.34 vs 2.24 in 2020). Males had higher AAMRs than females (1.87 vs 1.63 in 1999; 2.44 vs 2.06 in 2020). The West showed the largest increase (AAPC: 2.42%; 95% CI: 0.29–4.61); the South had the smallest, nonsignificant change (AAPC: 0.23%; 95% CI: –0.51–0.97). American Indians showed the largest decline (AAPC: –4.81%; 95% CI: –7.94–1.58), Whites the greatest rise (AAPC: 1.25%; 95% CI: 0.10–2.41). Urban areas had a higher AAPC (1.26%) than rural (0.71%). Males showed a significant increase (AAPC: 1.31%; 95% CI: 0.39–2.23), females nonsignificant (AAPC: 1.05%; 95% CI: –0.73–2.87). Age 35–44 had the lowest mortality (0.11 in 1999; 0.06 in 2020) and declined (AAPC: –3.75%; 95% CI: –4.70–2.78); 85+ had the highest (38.20 and 48.99). The largest increase was in age 55–64 (AAPC: 2.14%; 95% CI: 1.50–2.78); smallest in 45–54 (AAPC: 0.33%; 95% CI: –0.59–1.26). Conclusion: Cardiovascular deaths linked to heatwaves rose over two decades, affecting older adults, men, and Western states most, while American Indians and younger adults showed improvement.
Thahim, Muhammad Mudassir
(
Dr. Ruth K.M. Pfau, Civil Hospital
, Karachi , Pakistan )
Khalid, Arbab
(
Kirk Kerkorian School of Medicine at UNLV
, Las Vegas , Nevada , United States )
Author Disclosures:
Muhammad Mudassir Thahim:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Aqsa Hafeez:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Muhammad Saleem:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Ayesha Saleem:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Ubaid Ahmed:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Eman Hafeez:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Hasaan Nasir:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Aniqa Saleem:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
| Arbab Khalid:DO NOT have relevant financial relationships
Ali Muhammad Faizan, Khan Muhammad, Sharif Aleena, Hossain Mohammad, Faizan Muhammad, Ahmad Husnain, Eltawansy Sherif, Ahmed Ashraf, Abdul Malik Mohammad Hamza Bin, Pahwani Ritesh, Patel Rahul, Mehdi Hassan