Abstract Body (Do not enter title and authors here): Background: The Trial to Evaluate Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes (SELECT) showed cardiovascular disease (CVD) benefits of semaglutide therapy in patients with preexisting CVD and overweight or obesity.
Purpose: To estimate the number of US adults with CVD and overweight or obesity that may be eligible for semaglutide based on SELECT eligibility criteria and the number of preventable CVD events from semaglutide treatment based on observed CVD event reductions in SELECT.
Methods: We included US adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011-2020 who had eligibility criteria from SELECT. This included patients aged >45 years who had preexisting CVD and a BMI of >27kg/m² but no history of diabetes. Using NHANES sample weighting, we estimated the number of SELECT-eligible US adults and primary composite and secondary CVD endpoints that would occur based on SELECT treated and placebo published event rates, with the difference indicating the number of preventable events (and annualized based on mean 3.3-year follow-up).
Results: Among 8783 (projected to 77.9 million [M]) adults with overweight or obesity, we estimated 493 (4.1 million) (5.61%) to fit SELECT eligibility criteria. Compared to SELECT trial participants, our sample had a higher proportion of Black participants and was older with higher levels of diastolic blood pressure, total, LDL and HDL-cholesterol, and lower BMI, HbA1c, eGFR and triglycerides. Prior myocardial infarction was less common, but stroke was more common in our sample. From SELECT semaglutide and placebo primary composite CVD event rates of 6.5% and 8.0%, respectively, we estimated 79949 and 98399 CVD events would occur annually, the difference being 18450 potentially preventable CVD events. Moreover, we similarly estimated 104,549 and 357,928 annual preventable cases of diabetes and pre-diabetes, respectively. The Figure shows the estimated number of primary and secondary CVD outcomes that could be prevented annually.
Conclusion: Semaglutide may prevent many fatal and non-fatal CVD events, as well as incident cases of diabetes and pre-diabetes if provided to US adults meeting SELECT eligibility criteria. More efforts are needed to educate clinicians and patients on the benefits of semaglutide 2.4mg in those with preexisting CVD and overweight or obesity.