Abstract Body (Do not enter title and authors here): Background: WHO defined intrinsic capacity (IC), a composite of physical and mental capacities, is a marker of healthy aging. Monitoring IC trajectories in older adults may guide preventative strategies and delay negative health outcomes. With the rapidly increasing proportion of older adults and the high prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in China, this study aimed to identify IC trajectories over time and determine whether IC trajectories can predict CVD outcomes.

Hypothesis: The IC trajectory among Chinese older adults is heterogeneous; the decline of IC will be associated with increased CVD.

Methods: The study used data from five waves (2011 to 2020) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). A total of 3,336 adults aged 60 years or older without CVD during the baseline survey in 2011 (T1), who completed the follow-ups in 2013 (T2) and 2015 (T3) were included to determine IC trajectory. IC was assessed through five domains (locomotion, sensory, vitality, cognition, and psychology) using the WHO framework. The CVD outcomes were determined by self-reported diagnoses of heart disease or stroke in the 2020 (T5) wave. A group-based trajectory model (GBTM) was used to identify IC trajectory, and logistic regression was employed to explore the association between IC trajectory groups and CVD outcomes adjusting for covariates.

Results: Three IC trajectory groups were identified (Fig 1): high IC-stable group (13.40%), medium IC-stable group (56.12%), and low IC-decline group (30.48%). By the 2020 follow-up, 1204 participants (36.1%) reported CVD diagnosis. Adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle factors (smoking, drinking), and cardiovascular metabolic factors (hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia), compared to the high IC-stable group, the low IC-decline group had 63.7% higher odds of CVD (OR=1.637, 95%CI=1.268-2.114), and medium IC-stable group had 7.1% higher odds of CVD (OR=1.071, 95%CI=0.851-1.349).

Conclusion: IC trajectory among Chinese older adults is heterogeneous, and IC declines predict higher odds of CVD onset. Regular monitoring of IC and tailored intervention to improve IC may facilitate CVD prevention.